Saturday, March 17, 2012

Who Will be a Trail Blazer in 2012-2013 Part I: The Starters

The Trail Blazers are going through a significant transition on multiple fronts. After the dismissal of head coach Nate McMillan (replaced by assistant Kaleb Canales), as well as the trades of small forward Gerald Wallace (New Jersey) and center Marcus Camby (Houston), there's little doubt the team has entered rebuilding mode. The team showed fight, improved offensive flow and rhythm in a surprising win over the Bulls to start the new era, and find themselves just two games out of the #8 spot in the Western Conference.
While it was refreshing to see the team play together so well, the Blazers still face an uphill battle to reach the playoffs. With that thought in mind, I'll be giving you my best guess as to which players currently on the roster will stay, and who will be elsewhere when next season starts.

PF LaMarcus Aldridge: After the drafting of Greg Oden #1 overall in the 2007 draft, many believed power forward LaMarcus Aldridge would be the third option behind then-shooting guard Brandon Roy and Oden. With Roy retiring before this season due to a degenerative knee condition, and the waiving of Oden (who played in just 82 career games over his first five years in the NBA, as well as three microfracture surgeries), Aldridge is now the last man standing.
Aldridge became an All-Star for the first time this season, and has stepped up since Brandon Roy started battling injuries mid-way through the 2010-2011 year. Aldridge has a versatile array of post moves, and also has a solid jumper out to about 18 feet. He's a very good free throw shooter for a big man (77.5% career), but could utilize this more if he were more aggressive attacking the basket. Defensively, Aldridge has the length and quickness to be able to switch onto primary ball-handlers and (generally) keep them in front. While his effort on the defensive end of the floor could improve, he tends to do a better job as the game progresses. There is just about no chance that Aldridge goes anywhere, as he still has three years and $42 million left on his contract after this season, and he's the Blazers' only current All-Star level player.
On 12-13 roster: 99.99%. The only way Aldridge, 26, is not with Portland next season is if Portland were able to trade him for one of the top five players in the NBA, which I don't see happening.



SF Nicolas Batum: After the Gerald Wallace acquisition during last season, Batum was relegated to a reserve role, which was no doubt a difficult move for a player that had spent just about his entire career as a starter. After Wes Matthews started out cold this season, Batum was inserted as the starting shooting guard approximately halfway through the season, and has been the Blazers' second-best player behind Aldridge.
Offensively, Batum has a very good stroke from three, and is effective both spotting up, as well as coming off curl picks from around 16 feet. While he has decent ball-handing, he could be more aggressive attacking the basket, as he has proven to be a solid finisher near the basket.
Defensively, Batum has the length, athleticism and instincts to be one of the elite perimeter defenders in the league. He still needs to improve his strength, as players in the Carmelo Anthony/LeBron James mold give him trouble with their physicality. Batum sometimes struggles to rebound if other facets of his game aren't clicking, but has become more consistent throughout the season. He's also one of only a handful of non-bigs to average over 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game.
Batum is scheduled to become a restricted free agent this offseason, but with Portland likely to have around $20 million in cap space, the likelihood of him going elsewhere is slim, as Portland will have the right to match any offer.
On 12-13 roster: 95%. Even if a team signs him to a "toxic" offer sheet, the odds are that Portland will still likely match the offer (unless it approaches over $10 million/year), as the 23 year old is one of the better young small forwards in the league.

C Joel Przybilla: Przybilla ended his semi-retirement by signing with the Blazers a few weeks ago. After the trade of Marcus Camby, Przybilla will now be leaned on to see the floor much more than he or Blazer management would have predicted when he signed. At 32, Przybilla's athleticism is clearly in decline, but is still a very smart player that does a good job at both setting screens and taking charges. The good news is that those are two areas that the Blazers were lacking, as players like Aldridge, Camby and Kurt Thomas were more pick-and-pop players.
Przybilla is on a one year, veterans minimum contract, meaning he'll be an unrestricted free agent next season. While not the player he once was, Przybilla is a solid vocal leader for the team who the Blazers would more than likely love to bring back.
On 12-13 roster: 50%. Przybilla proved that his heart is with Portland by eschewing offers from contenders (Chicago and Miami) to return to Portland. The biggest dictator of this will be whether he chooses to retire or not, which is possible since he's said he wants to spend more time with his family.

PG Raymond Felton: Few players have seen as much of a regression during the lockout-shortened season than Felton, 27. After being acquired from Denver in exchange for Andre Miller, Raymond has seen his numbers dip across the board, including career-lows in FG percentage (38.2%), 3PT percentage (24.5%), points (10.3) and assist to turnover ratio (2.23/1). Felton came in to camp out of shape, and with a shortened training camp and compacted season, he and the Blazers have both struggled.
Offensively, Felton is a solid pick and roll player, and has above average speed and quickness. He's best suited for an up-tempo attack, where he can either attack the rim, or kick to open shooters. Despite his struggles this season, his jump shot had improved over the past two years (36.3% from 2009-2011), and will likely continue to improve as his conditioning does.
Defensively, Felton does a good job of keeping his man in front of him in man-to-man, but struggles working off of pick-and-rolls. He also does a slightly above average job of playing the passing lanes, as he averages 1.4 steals per game in his career. While not among the bigger point guards in terms of height, he has enough strength and bulk to prevent most teams from posting up their own point guards.
On 12-13 roster: 25 percent. Felton's play, attitude and professionalism have all been lacking this season. Yet with a new coach in Kaleb Canales, he will have an opportunity over the last 22 games to show improvements in all three areas, and the system should be more up-tempo than under Nate McMillan. While I think management will let him hit free agency, if the market on him is cold (and Portland is unable to address the position in the draft or free agency), then he could be brought back on another short-term deal.

SG Wes Matthews: Matthews, like many of his backcourt mates, struggled with his shot through much of the season. After being benched in favor of Nicolas Batum in mid-February, he now finds himself back in the starting lineup after the trade of Gerald Wallace allowed Batum to move back to his natural '3' position.
Matthews is a very good three-point shooter (39.9% in his first two seasons), most effective when spotting up on the wing or in the corner. While he's not bad coming off of screens, Matthews sometimes struggles to square his shoulders, resulting in misses. Matthews is a good free throw shooter, but is a bit of a mixed bag when attacking the rim, as his ball-handling is below-average for an NBA shooting guard.
Defensively, Matthews is solid in man to man, as despite lacking elite physical tools (wingspan, athleticism), he does a good job of keeping his man in front of him. He does struggle fighting through screens, and will occasionally take unnecessary risks in a zone, leaving shooters or the lane wide open. After Batum, he's probably the team's second best defender.
On 12-13 roster: 80%. Matthews is still just 25 years old, and has three years and approximately $20 million left on his current deal. Portland would be willing to trade him if the right offer came along, but the team lacks much in the way of proven depth behind him, so he'll more than likely remain in Portland at least another year.

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